Indian Oil Firms May Avoid Major Hit from Russia Curbs: ICICI Securities

• ICICI Securities believes Indian oil firms' direct impact from Russia curbs will be lower than market fears, despite rising geopolitical tensions.
• A proposed US bill could impose tariffs up to 500% on countries like India, China, and Brazil buying Russian oil due to the Ukraine war.
• Indian refiners like Reliance and HPCL have significantly reduced their exposure to Russian crude, with discounts narrowing to $3-4 a barrel.
• The main risk is refiners' ability to quickly replace Russian barrels without disrupting operations, as removing 4.5-5 million barrels globally is unfeasible.
• OPEC and Venezuela cannot fully bridge potential supply gaps quickly, though some Indian refiners can process heavy crude like Venezuela's.
• Geopolitics now drives oil markets as much as fundamentals, highlighting the complex global energy landscape.

Why It Matters: Indian oil firms are better positioned against Russia curbs than feared, but global supply stability remains a key geopolitical concern.