Oil Sanctions Rhetoric vs. Market Reality: Why Prices Stay Soft, India Gains

• Despite US sanctions rhetoric on Russian oil, global oil prices are expected to remain soft due to surplus supply and rising inventories.
• Analysts like Rick Joswick (S&P Global Platts) and Jayant Dasgupta (former WTO Ambassador) believe market fundamentals will outweigh political noise.
• Global crude inventories surged by 400 million barrels last year, with an additional 200 million expected by May, reinforcing a surplus.
• A proposed US bill for 500% tariffs on Russian oil buyers is deemed unlikely to be fully enforced, as it would harm global supply and US interests.
• Increased Venezuelan heavy crude supply could further lower heavy oil prices, indirectly benefiting Indian refiners configured for such grades.

Why It Matters: Market fundamentals of surplus supply will keep oil prices soft, potentially boosting margins for Indian refiners despite sanctions rhetoric.