Fertilizer Shortage Looms: Iran War Disrupts Supply, Threatens Global Food Prices

• The Iran war is tightening fertilizer supply, raising concerns about higher food prices later this year.
• Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, are severely constraining shipments.
• FOB granular urea prices in Egypt have surged from $400-$490 to around $700 per metric ton since the conflict began.
• The Middle East is a major exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, and the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint; 30% of exportable supply is currently unavailable.
• Nitrogen fertilizers like urea are essential for annual application, making this disruption potentially more impactful on crop output than the Russia-Ukraine war.