RBI's February Rate Pattern: Cuts Amidst Fluid Inflation, Growth Projections

• RBI has historically delivered rate cuts in February every other year, contrasting with unpredictable inflation and growth projections.
• A Moneycontrol poll suggests RBI is unlikely to change rates this Friday, following a 125 bps cut since last February.
• Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) frequently revises inflation and growth forecasts within months of initial February outlooks.
• February policy meetings are crucial for setting the tone for the fiscal year, but projections often require quick recalibration due to evolving economic conditions.
• A new India-US trade agreement, reducing US tariffs on Indian goods, is expected to boost India's growth, potentially adding 20-30 basis points.