Nuvama Institutional Research in its latest ITC report noted, “Historically, after such a sharp hike, volumes decrease 3–9%. For example, FY11 logged a 3% volume drop YoY after an ~18% price increase.”
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Moneycontrol02-01-2026, 08:18

Cigarette Stocks Plunge Rs 60,000 Cr After Excise Hike; ITC Faces Volume Risk

  • Cigarette stocks, led by ITC Ltd and Godfrey Phillips India, shed nearly Rs 60,000 crore in market cap.
  • The decline follows a sharp excise duty hike on cigarettes, effective February 1, 2026.
  • Experts warn of near-term volume risks for all companies as consumers adjust to higher prices.
  • ITC, with 75% market share, is expected to be resilient long-term due to diversification, despite potential 15% price hikes.
  • Prabhudas Lilladher downgraded ITC to 'Reduce,' citing estimated 12.5% volume drop in FY27.

Why It Matters: Excise hike triggers massive market cap loss for cigarette stocks, with short-term volume risks expected.

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