Rupee's 2026 Outlook: Experts Split on 6% Depreciation Becoming New Norm

• Analysts are divided on the Indian rupee's trajectory for 2026, with some predicting a new norm of 6% annual depreciation.
• Systematix and Choice Broking foresee structural weakness, trade deficits, and RBI's managed float pushing INR/USD towards 95-100.
• BofA Securities and CareEdge project rupee appreciation (3-6%) to 86-87/USD by end-2026, driven by dollar weakness and capital inflows.
• Others like Shinhan Bank, Axis Securities, and Nomura expect mild, gradual depreciation (around 4.5%) due to strong RBI reserves and intervention, with INR around 90-92/USD.
• No clear consensus emerges, with the rupee's path dependent on global factors, capital flows, trade, and RBI's tolerance.

Why It Matters: Rupee's 2026 outlook is uncertain; experts are split between significant depreciation, appreciation, or mild decline.