Why Market Outlooks Often Fail: Hits, Misses, and Forecasting Tricks

• Many 2025 predictions, including Fed rates and global economic deceleration, largely came true.
• Forecasts for asset classes like gold and the scale of the AI market boom (e.g., Nvidia) were often inaccurate.
• India-specific predictions, such as bond market inflows post-index inclusion and rupee depreciation, largely missed expectations.
• Outlooks for 2026 from Citi and Nomura predict continued AI trade, US exceptionalism, potential Fed rate cuts, and India's sustained economic growth.
• The article discusses the "tyranny of outlooks," where predictions set expectations that can lead to disappointment, and notes forecasters' use of long-term, fantastic figures.

Why It Matters: It reveals how financial outlooks often mislead and create false expectations.