Hormuz Squeeze Exposes India's Conditional Energy Autonomy, Triggers Gas Crisis

• India's energy sourcing autonomy, particularly its reliance on Russian crude, is revealed as conditional by the Iran conflict and Hormuz squeeze.
• Crude oil imports from Russia tracked Washington's sanctions policy, not New Delhi's independent decisions, highlighting geopolitical dependence.
• The gas crisis is severe: India imports half its natural gas as LNG, with 69% from Qatar, UAE, Oman via Hormuz; Iranian strikes led to force majeure and zero allocation for GAIL.
• Unlike crude, India lacks a buffer for gas; no Russian equivalent for LNG, no bilateral alternatives, and no domestic surplus, making the distribution chain vulnerable.
• Soaring LNG prices (Platts JKM from $10 to $25 per MMBtu) will significantly impact fertilizer subsidies, potentially derailing Budget 2026-27's fiscal deficit targets.