Mad Kings of Diplomacy: Leaders Who Mastered Unpredictability in Foreign Policy

• The "Madman Theory" is a diplomatic strategy where leaders act unpredictably to make rivals retreat, first discussed by Daniel Ellsberg in 1959.
• Richard Nixon institutionalized this theory during his presidency (1969-1974), using it to pressure North Vietnam during the war.
• Donald Trump openly adopted unpredictability, withdrawing from global agreements and questioning alliances, creating uncertainty for allies and rivals.
• Kim Jong-un uses exaggerated threats and missile tests to amplify North Korea's power and complicate deterrence.
• Nikita Khrushchev, Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi also employed unpredictable tactics, ranging from brinkmanship to erratic diplomacy, with varying outcomes.

Why It Matters: Unpredictability has been a powerful, albeit risky, tool in foreign policy for leaders from Nixon to Trump.