Jamaat's Strategic Electoral Rise in Bangladesh Raises Red Flags for India

• Jamaat-e-Islami is employing a data-driven strategy for Bangladesh's 2026 parliamentary election, targeting 162 winnable constituencies after extensive assessment.
• The party is focusing on early booth control, mobilising 1.5 million expatriate supporters for postal ballots, and conducting door-to-door surveys in urban centers like Dhaka.
• Significant financial resources, estimated at BDT 50-100 crore per priority constituency, are being deployed, with data collection for targeted cash transfers to influence voters.
• A fragmented opposition, particularly the BNP-led alliance, is seen as benefiting Jamaat, which privately claims it could secure 205-210 seats.
• Indian intelligence agencies are closely monitoring Jamaat's rise, fearing a Jamaat-dominated government in Dhaka could pose internal security challenges for West Bengal and Northeast India due to ideological links and porous borders.

Why It Matters: Jamaat's calculated electoral strategy in Bangladesh, backed by significant funds, poses a security concern for India.