Bangladesh Elections: BNP Frontrunner, But Jamaat's Shadow Looms Large

• Confidential assessment reveals BNP faces deeper challenges in Bangladesh elections despite being a frontrunner.
• Jamaat-e-Islami is gaining significant clout by attracting traditional Awami League voters, who are crucial kingmakers.
• Jamaat allegedly holds strong influence within civil and police administration, raising concerns about electoral manipulation.
• BNP's internal issues, including Tarique Rahman's 18-year absence and problematic ticket distribution, weaken its position.
• Jamaat prefers election delays to consolidate power and can use micro-level controls to shape outcomes without overt rigging.

Why It Matters: BNP faces significant internal and external challenges from Jamaat's growing influence in Bangladesh elections.