New Analysis Questions China's Growth, Flags Much Weaker Economy

• Rhodium Group estimates China's 2025 real growth at 2.5-3%, nearly half the official 5.2%.
• Sharp contraction in fixed asset investment, shrinking credit, and persistent deflation for 10 quarters indicate structural weaknesses.
• Experts like Tsai Ming-fang suggest China's consistent growth figures are politically engineered, not economically grounded.
• Liu Meng-chun notes inflated data misleads policymakers and investors, deepening economic vulnerabilities.
• He Jiang-bing states China's aggressive trade posture and attempts to weaponize trade accelerate global decoupling.

Why It Matters: New analysis suggests China's economy is significantly weaker than official figures, facing structural issues.