A demonstrator holds action figures of "Super Bigote" (Super Mustache) and "Cilita", superheroes inspired by US-deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, during a march outside the National Assembly, in Caracas, Venezuela January 5, 2026. File Image/Reuters
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Firstpost06-01-2026, 15:56

Polymarket Trader Profits $400K+ on Maduro's Fall: Insider Info Suspected?

  • A Polymarket trader earned over $400,000 by correctly betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's removal hours before it was announced by US President Donald Trump.
  • The trader placed a large wager of over $32,000 on Maduro being out of office by January 31, 2026, just weeks after joining Polymarket.
  • Unusual market activity on Polymarket and Kalshi showed implied probabilities of Maduro's removal surging dramatically just before Trump's announcement.
  • The incident raises questions about potential insider trading, though no evidence has emerged, and identifying pseudonymous traders on blockchain is difficult.
  • US Representative Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to prohibit government employees from trading on prediction markets with nonpublic information, highlighting regulatory concerns.

Why It Matters: A massive profit on Maduro's fall sparks insider trading concerns, putting prediction markets under scrutiny.

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