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CNBC TV1812-01-2026, 06:52

Maduro Payout Sparks Insider Trading Fears, Puts Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny

  • An anonymous trader received a $400,000 payout on Polymarket after betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture, raising insider trading suspicions.
  • The wagers were placed hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture, fueling debate over the timing and trader's activity.
  • Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, allow wagers on diverse events, from politics to pop culture, using "event contracts."
  • Despite potential for profits, critics highlight risks of financial losses, potential for insider trading, and regulatory loopholes.
  • The US regulatory landscape for prediction markets is complex, with the CFTC overseeing them, but facing calls for stronger oversight.

Why It Matters: A large payout on Maduro's capture highlights the growing, yet controversial, world of prediction markets.

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